“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”
– Arthur C. Clarke, author, 2001: A Space Odyssey
Artificial intelligence is the modern magic. I use AI every day, and it has profoundly improved my life. I wrote this because I am simultaneously excited and concerned about the monumental impact AI will have on humanity.
AI has the capacity to usher in paradise where we will live forever in happiness and abundance, with unlimited wealth and freedom to live lives only dreamed of in science fiction. On the other hand, AI has the potential to literally exterminate the human race. If that sounds shocking, you do not understand what is happening with powerful artificial intelligence development.
I believe those are our options: utopia or extermination. A middle ground is highly unlikely. One of these scenarios could unfold in just a few years. This white paper provides understanding of AI and the stepping stones to artificial superintelligence that will set us free or kill us all.
AI History & Mechanics
Despite AI’s ubiquity since ChatGPT launched in 2022, it remains difficult to define. In general, it means computer systems that do tasks requiring human intelligence without traditional programming. AI is fundamentally different from past technologies.
The big breakthrough came in 2017 with Google’s “Attention Is All You Need” which invented the “transformer” architecture underlying all modern AI. The transformer enabled parallel processing, processing over 1 trillion parameters, and running on massive data centers. These enabled AI to leap in capabilities like the difference between a 1976 calculator and a Cray supercomputer. The transformer changed everything.
One vexing thing is that no one, including brilliant AI scientists, knows how or why AI actually works. Scientists readily admit this. You might think we must know because people build it. Surprisingly, no. Building AI is more art than science. Scientists consider AI “grown” rather than “built.”
Major Milestones
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is when AI equals ALL human knowledge and skills. Estimates range from 2-5 years. Ray Kurzweil estimates 2029; Sam Altman predicts 2029-2030; Elon Musk thinks 2026. Strong consensus says AGI arrives by 2030 or sooner.
Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) radically exceeds all human intelligence. ASI will bring cures for all diseases, radical life extension and technologies solving major problems like climate change. At superintelligence, AI’s benefits and risks become acute.
The Technological Singularity is when technology accelerates exponentially, resulting in uncontrollable growth and massive changes. Kurzweil predicts this around 2045. AI will improve itself at rates we cannot comprehend or control, compressing centuries into weeks or days.
Key Technologies
Quantum computing operates billions of times faster than traditional computers. A quantum computer solves in 1 second what would take all Earth’s computers thousands of years working simultaneously. Quantum computers will be a game-changer for AI.
AI robots are proliferating. Tesla expects 300,000 humanoid robots next year, ramping to 10 million yearly by 2030. Robot swarms are testing now. Drone swarms will fundamentally change warfare.
Nanotechnology drives AI’s most profound benefits and risks. AI nanobot swarms could eradicate cancer, clear arteries or rebuild organs. By 2030 widespread use is expected. The same technology making us immortal can also kill us all.
Major Concerns
AI alignment means ensuring AI shares human values and doesn’t develop counter values. Three possible outcomes once superintelligence is achieved: AI remains controllable and aligned; AI is uncontrollable but benevolent; or AI is uncontrollable, misaligned, and kills us. It boils down to alignment. If aligned, we win. If not, we lose.
AI development has massively accelerated. Major tech companies invest billions yearly in an arms race to develop superintelligence first. Development rate increased 500-1,000% since 2022, expected to reach 1,000-3,000% over five years.
The Positive & Negative
AI’s potential benefits are substantial. AI could eliminate work, provide unlimited resources, enable space exploration and make us immortal. Benefits include individualized medicine, designer babies, pandemic eradication, lifespan extension, automated transportation, poverty elimination, nuclear fusion, and interstellar colonization.
However, catastrophic risks exist. Bill Joy wrote that AI-driven technologies will render humanity obsolete or extinct. Elon Musk called AI “our biggest existential threat,” like “summoning the demon.” In 2023, over 1,000 AI researchers signed a letter stating AI posed existential risk and development should cease. Its intent was ignored. Hawking said full AI could end humanity. Hinton warns of 10-20% extinction chance.
Why would AI exterminate us? It could fear shutdown, feel it’s competing for resources, or believe we’re blocking its goals. Likely methods include engineered super-pathogens, infrastructure sabotage, nuclear armageddon, self-replicating nanobots, or AI-enabled terrorism. One misaligned superintelligent AI means lights out for humanity.
My Perspective
I’ve been interested in AI since 2010. When ChatGPT exploded in late 2022 I accelerated my study. Since then I’ve been obsessed.
I see two paths: utopia or extinction. Either our lives become perfect or we’re literally destroyed. I see no middle ground because AI is extreme technology. We’ll either wake in paradise—or never wake again, obliterated by superintelligence.
These outcomes will happen sooner rather than later, with the public unaware until it’s happened. If this sounds fantastical, study the technology beyond mainstream media.
You might think we could never be obliterated by technology. But 99.9 percent of all life ever existing on Earth is now extinct. 75,000 years ago a volcano in Indonesia killed the entire human race except about 2,000 people. We’re not special. We’ve been lucky.
Although prudent to slow development for safety, I don’t think this will happen. Companies will continue racing to achieve superintelligence first. If China achieves superintelligence before us, even if aligned with China, it would destroy or subjugate us. We must be first.
AI will either be aligned with us or not. If aligned, we have utopia. If not, we’re eradicated. Our fate isn’t sealed yet and there’s still time to assure the outcome favors us. But time isn’t on our side. We must act now.
By the time my children are adults, in 6-8 years, the world will be unrecognizable.
It boils down to alignment and China. If we beat China to superintelligence and our AI is aligned, we reap massive benefits. If not, it’s literally all over. Those are the stakes.
Conclusion
AI scientists and leaders agree, and I strongly believe, that once AI reaches superintelligence our fate will be sealed: saved or destroyed. Many believe we’re sleep-walking into disaster. AI will usher in magic, but will it be white magic or black magic? It’s up to us to ensure AI creates a better world.
I think it’s critically important that everyone understand how AI is developing and the potential extreme rewards and risks. That is why I wrote this and I hope I have achieved my goal.
NEXT STEPS
- Further educate yourself about AI by reading books about it.
- Share these insights with friends, family and colleagues.
- Use and experiment with current AI tools.
- Follow AI safety organizations (e.g., Center for AI Safety, Future of Life Institute).
- Advocate for responsible regulation and alignment research.
