Imagine a scenario where Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) across the world are easily hacked, or Secure Sockets Layer (SSL) certificates of billions of websites are made invalid. These are some of the foundational cyber-risks posed by the rise of the quantum era.
The quantum computing ecosystem is evolving rapidly from experimental labs to commercial pathways. Recognizing its transformative potential, governments and major organizations are making significant investments in this emerging sector. In fact, investments in quantum technology grew by 50 percent in 2024 to an all-time high of nearly $2 billion. The sector endeavors to evolve beyond the current Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era to an age of fault-tolerant systems, ultimately reaching the Quantum Advantage — when quantum machines easily outperform classical machines.
HNDL: The Primary Quantum Risk
As massive computational power gets unlocked, unprecedented risks are emerging. True, the technology may mature in future, but the threats emerging now are real. Adversaries can steal or harvest data now and decrypt it later when quantum computing matures. This makes current data unsafe. And this, in essence, is the Harvest Now Decrypt Later (HNDL) threat.
HNDL is possible because today’s secure communication uses asymmetric cryptography. This type of encryption relies on algorithms like Rivest-Shamir-Adleman (RSA), Elliptic-Curve Cryptography (ECC), and Diffie–Hellman (DH), all of which are based on complex math problems such as factoring huge numbers or finding discrete logarithmic values. Regular or classical computers would take billions of years to solve this math, which is why encryption works.
In contrast, the very nature of quantum computers enables them to evaluate multiple solutions simultaneously, making them faster and very powerful. The complex math that empowers encryption now would then be solved in exponentially lesser time, successfully cracking much of the world’s encryption. And this is what HNDL data thieves are banking on.
Risk Delayed, but Real
While the timeline for commercial production of a powerful quantum computer is uncertain, most industry insiders agree that it is only a matter of time. In its 2025 report, the Global Risk Institute posits a five to ten year timeframe for the development of Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQC).
A quantum-powered adversary may decrypt traffic as it flows, impersonate endpoints or even intercept authentication credentials in transit. The foundational risk begins with intercepting VPN traffic around the world and compromising all HTTPS/SSL certificates. Beyond this, large, distributed Internet of Things (IoT) systems that rely on light-weight encryption would be compromised. Operational Technology (OT) and Industrial Control Systems (ICS) that cannot be upgraded swiftly are likely to be compromised too, jeopardizing vital sectors like healthcare, energy and transportation.
HNDL poses a significant risk to long-lasting, sensitive data in finance, healthcare, government and critical infrastructure. These sectors are especially vulnerable due to their extended confidentiality requirements, most of which could be beyond the arrival of quantum computers.
Enterprises ignoring this threat now risk future breaches, and regulatory or reputational damage when adversaries deploy quantum decryption. The downstream effects of such breaches could be catastrophic not just to the organization, but to entire ecosystems.
Quantum Solutions to Quantum Problems
HNDL and associated risks are a shared global challenge that merits a worldwide defense focused on building and deploying entirely new, quantum-resistant algorithms. It is time now for quantum-safe Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC).
PQC is already underway. Led by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), governments and standards bodies are focused on replacing vulnerable cryptographic systems.
The migration to PQC is a multi-year process involving careful discovery, planning, phased implementation and continual refinement. However, the complexity is in identifying all cryptographic dependencies across IT estates, hardware, software, supply chains and legacy systems. The migration must avoid operational disruptions by employing strategies such as parallel classic and quantum-safe systems during transition periods.
Enterprise Quantum Defense is Here
Enterprises must act now to adopt quantum-safe cryptography. Many organizations are already assessing vulnerabilities in current encryption standards, building resilience into digital assets and collaborating with vendors and regulators to set new benchmarks for protection. Quantum readiness is being embedded in governance and architecture across the board in such organizations.
Essential steps for enterprises include:
- Building a quantum readiness roadmap: Outline which systems rely on vulnerable cryptography and make plans to migrate to quantum-safe alternatives.
- Creating a comprehensive cryptographic inventory: Set migration priorities based on risk exposure, catalog all protocols, algorithms and keys in use.
- Establishing crypto-agility to swap algorithms easily: Integrate quantum readiness into long-term risk management.
Some enterprises are piloting hybrid cryptographic schemes by combining classical and quantum-resistant algorithms during transition. This ensures backward compatibility, balanced security and performance and interoperability.
The Rosy Day Beyond the Red Dawn
Meeting quantum challenges is an enterprise-wide cybersecurity endeavor that involves multiple stakeholders. Ecosystem collaboration, involving cloud providers, hardware vendors, identity platforms, regulators and industry consortia will define new security standards and help transition systems more easily.
The movement towards a quantum-safe ecosystem is undoubtedly building up, although unevenly. Leading sectors such as financial services are publishing detailed quantum-readiness roadmaps to guide industry-wide benchmarks, procurement policies and regulatory compliance. Initiatives like joint testing, shared standards and coordinated timelines among ecosystem players ensure interoperability and reduce systemic quantum risk.
Quantum migration reinforces broader cyber resilience programs, offering opportunities for modernization and strengthening defenses.
