Most breaches don’t start with a bang, they slip quietly through logins that look routine. That’s the uncomfortable truth many firms will face in 2026. Security teams have spent years hardening endpoints, segmenting networks, and moving workloads behind SaaS platforms. That work matters, but attackers rarely keep ramming the same door.
As data breaches and cyber-attacks grow in severity and frequency, it’s no wonder there’s anxiety from industry titans and small businesses alike. The shift now is behavioural as much as technical: organisations will move from reacting to incidents to continuously proving that their controls work. Meanwhile, adversaries will refine their ability to blend in rather than break in.
2026 will be the year the industry pivots from static assurances to living, provable security. Here’s how that evolution is unfolding.
Identity becomes the new battleground
As traditional entry points harden, attackers are pivoting to the softest remaining surface: identity. By 2026, the fortress walls will have moved. Endpoints will be hardened, networks segmented, and cloud infrastructure hidden behind SaaS layers. Every employee, contractor and service account will continue to represent a potential doorway to compromise.
Single Sign-On embodies this tension. A single stolen session or OAuth token can bypass MFA and open the entire enterprise. Attackers no longer need to break in; they simply sign in. Because it looks like legitimate access, many environments treat it as low risk until the damage is already done.
MFA fatigue, privilege sprawl, and poorly correlated identity logs leave organisations blind to subtle breaches that spread laterally, often without triggering reauthentication. The illusion of safety from MFA and conditional access policies will shatter as identity is recognised as the new perimeter. The most forward-looking CISOs will treat identity systems as critical infrastructure, auditing roles, verifying tokens, and correlating logs like financial ledgers. The ones who don’t may find their next breach starts not with malware, but with a login. Moving forward, organisations are going to have to shift to tighter privilege by default, faster revocation of sessions and tokens, and identity telemetry that’s actually connected across cloud, SaaS, and endpoints, so “odd, but valid” logins don’t slip through.
The impact of AI on risk and red teaming
AI is set to take even more significant role within security operations, acting as both an asset for red teaming groups but also as a threat to firms as it becomes increasingly utilised by hackers.
Attackers will move beyond off-the-shelf AI to tuning models on organisation-specific data. Rather than generic phishing, we’ll see more targeted campaigns built from publicly shared and leaked data. The real threat won’t be “human-like precision” but scaled, automated reconnaissance that shrink what used to take weeks into hours, and makes “personalised” attacks cheap.
Red teams will add LLM testing to their playbooks, focusing on mundane but critical risks: can the sales chatbot be tricked into revealing customer data? Does the coding assistant leak API keys in its suggestions? Can an internal assistant be nudged into summarising sensitive docs, or accepting untrusted inputs as truth?
The looming challenge will be supply chain verification for AI. Just as we check for vulnerabilities, security teams will validate model training data providence. Expect more legitimate models to get poisoned upstream, similar to dependency confusion attacks but harder to detect. Most organisations won’t be “interrogating algorithms” though, they’ll be struggling with basics like logging what prompts employees are feeding into AI tools and whether those tools are phoning home to unexpected endpoints. In other words: the risk won’t always be Skynet. It‘ll be a well-meaning employee pasting the wrong thing into the wrong box, at scale.
What good looks like in 2026 will be clear rules for what can go into AI tools, logging and review for high-risk users, and red-team tests that treat chatbots, copilots, and agents as real attack surfaces, not novelty apps.
Compliance and PTaaS: A stricter, more proactive regulatory landscape
Given that data breaches are becoming ever more severe and frequent, and with AI becoming increasingly weaponised, the regulatory landscape is set to change dramatically. Box ticking will no longer be good enough for regulators and will be seeking greater proactivity from firms. We can expect that regulators won’t settle for a stack of policies, they’ll demand evidence that security controls are working every minute of every day. Continuous testing will replace annual box-ticking, with Penetration Testing-as-a-Service feeding live data into dashboards mapped to GDPR, NIS2 and DORA standards.
The organisations that adapt fastest will weave compliance into their operational rhythm, running tests alongside major releases, acquisitions or cloud migrations. Those that can show regulators fewer critical vulnerabilities, faster fixes and cleaner retests will turn governance into an asset. Next year, resilience won’t be a quarterly report, but a near-real-time view of how well your defences really work.
The point isn’t more paperwork, it’s fewer unknowns. If a control fails, firms will need to spot it quickly, fix it quickly, and prove that it stayed fixed.
Looking ahead
To ensure your organisation does not become the next headline for a cyber-attack or data breach, boosting awareness of AI’s capabilities is essential. Business leaders must also take care in making sure hype does not overcome practical implementation of AI in order to realise its full value and strengthen resilience against smarter attacks.
Through a more proactive regulatory landscape and a resilient business community, businesses from the largest and to the smallest can better protect against hostile actors seeking to steal valuable data and decimate operations. The winners won’t be the firms with the biggest security stack. They’ll be the ones who can prove, continuously, that the basics work, even as the threat changes shape.
