The state’s largest newspaper picked the races and asked Saxum’s Foundry DST, a county-level sentiment model, to call them before a single vote was counted. Saxum shared both results along with what it changed as a result.

OKLAHOMA CITY, Aug. 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Foundry DST, the Oklahoma-built AI decision support tool developed by Saxum, was featured in The Oklahoman’s Aug. 2 coverage of artificial intelligence and political forecasting, after the newspaper put the tool to a live test against Oklahoma’s June 16 primary election.

Reporters sat down with Saxum in a downtown Oklahoma City conference room less than a week before the primary and asked Foundry DST to forecast a slate of statewide contests, among them the nine-candidate Republican gubernatorial primary and State Question 832, the measure to raise Oklahoma’s minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 by 2029. Saxum ran the models and handed over the projections and confidence scores before any votes were cast, then followed up the day after the election with a post-election analysis of where the model was right and where it was wrong, an unusual level of transparency in a field where AI tools are frequently criticized for opacity.

“Decision support tools like Foundry are becoming more and more important for leadership as new issues are resulting in new challenges. At the same time, decisions and communications are expected faster and faster,” said Hart Brown, President, AI & Transformation at Saxum. “Using technology as part of those decisions while still leveraging real experience is now possible. Foundry DST is an example of how we are effectively reducing uncertainty for clients on communications, messaging, how those messages would be received, and even likely voter reaction. Other decision support tools we have built include Bedrock Alignment, a tool that helps organizations optimize their strategies. These systems include the most rigorous strategic thinking used anywhere in the world.”

The clearest call was State Question 832. Saxum’s model projected the day before that 55.42% of Oklahomans would vote the measure down; the certified result was 55.38% opposed, a gap of four hundredths of a percentage point. Saxum’s post-election report to The Oklahoman described the outcome as “remarkably close to the model.” Foundry DST also correctly called the Republican primaries for lieutenant governor and attorney general, and correctly projected that Mike Mazzei would advance to the August runoff for governor. At the county level, the model identified Mazzei’s strength in rural western counties such as Cimarron and Ellis, and Chip Keating’s support in the Oklahoma City-area counties of Canadian, Logan and McClain.

The model also missed, and Saxum said so. Foundry DST projected a Keating–Mazzei runoff for governor. Instead, Gentner Drummond finished first with 26.3% of the Republican vote, Mazzei placed a close second with 26%, and Keating finished third. Saxum’s post-election analysis identified two causes: Jake Merrick, treated by the model and by most public polling as a longshot, communicated more effectively across his home region than anticipated and swept swing counties, while Drummond benefited from higher name recognition and from late-building voter sentiment around foreign ownership of Oklahoma land that the model had not weighted heavily enough.

Brown traced the miss to a failure mode common in AI systems. “It started acting in what we call a rational actor theory,” he told The Oklahoman, weighting what would rationally benefit voters most rather than how Oklahomans actually behave. Saxum has since reinforced the behavioral side of the model, reduced the weight given to rational choice theory, and changed how Foundry DST profiles candidates, focusing less on what candidates say they will do and more on how voters respond to them. Brown is tracking the updated system through the August runoff and into the November general election.

“Foundry DST is an example of what we’ve always believed at Saxum: the organizations that understand their communities best are the ones who earn lasting trust,” said Peter Farrell, CEO, Saxum. “Used the right way, tools like this are an opportunity, not a risk, a way to communicate with more precision and more respect for the people you’re trying to reach. That means using it openly, with real accountability, and with people, not algorithms, making the final call. That’s what Foundry DST was built to do, and it’s why we were glad to open the doors and let a newsroom test it.”

Foundry DST launched in 2026 as the first intelligence capability purpose-built to map anticipatory sentiment across all 77 Oklahoma counties before a message goes public. The system runs on roughly 15,000 individual data points across the state, from census figures to tribal enrollment, and synthesizes the output of three separate AI models into a single consensus with a confidence score attached. It is built for organizations across government, health, energy, tribal, private and advocacy sectors to test how messages, policy positions, and campaigns will land at the county level before they’re made public, grounding communications decisions in evidence rather than guesswork. Every analysis is reviewed by an expert analyst, and final judgment remains with the people using it.

Demand is expanding well beyond politics. Saxum is currently fielding requests to apply Foundry DST in marketing, public affairs, government affairs, advertising, research and development, and academic settings.

To read and watch The Oklahoman’s full coverage, including accompanying video, visit oklahoman.com. For more information on Foundry DST, visit FoundryDST.com.

About Foundry DST

Foundry DST is the first intelligence capability purpose-built for Oklahoma organizations that need to know how a message will land before it goes public. Built on 24-plus data dimensions per county and modeled with sovereignty-first framing, Foundry DST delivers confidence-rated, county-level sentiment analysis through an expert analyst-guided process. FoundryDST.com

About Saxum

Saxum is a strategic consultancy and transformation partner for bedrock organizations serving citizens, community, and country. Founded in 2003 and based in Oklahoma, Saxum blends integrity, ingenuity, and humanity to help leaders build trust and durable advantage through integrated, AI-native, foresight-informed strategy and execution. Make unshakeable—unstoppable.

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