From what began as a one-day event of discounts for shoppers, Black Friday rapidly proliferated the rest of the month of November as well. Opportunities for increased sales in the run-up to Christmas have been driven by consumers starting their shopping earlier each year. But with the advent of “Black November” comes the need for strategic preparedness.
Discounts on popular items create huge demand spikes that require warehouse operations to meet the challenge, and senior leaders need to be ready to meet these waves. For businesses that lack the big budgets of Amazon, it’s not as simple as purchasing a quick fix automated solution and simply dropping it into the warehouse environment. That’s where simulation digital twins come in.
Preparing for surges in demand
For many warehouse teams, November peaks still rely on manual estimates, static reports, and hurried meetings in an effort to prepare. Digital twin simulation platforms, built for warehouse operations, model the actual constraints that matter during Black Friday and the wider peak period that now surrounds it. That can include factors such as equipment schedules, robot paths, shift patterns, transport schedules, breaks, queue build-up, and replenishment rules.
Anyone from the C-suite to the operations teams can experiment with these factors and compare scenarios in minutes. The result is a practical view of what it will take to hit service levels in specific weeks. It provides clear visibility of where extra labour, process changes, or minor configuration tweaks will have the biggest impact, allowing decision makers to plan accordingly.
Supply chains can proactively, rapidly, and confidently prepare for a range of different scenarios in advance, enabling management of uncertainty and prevention of any potential disruption.
If we take a practical example, let’s consider that orders are expected to increase for specific product ranges by 30% on Black Friday and the surrounding weeks. Ahead of November, organisations can utilise digital twin technology to identify where bottlenecks are likely to arise, understand capacity constraints, and see how increased demand for those products could affect wider warehouse operations.
Say for example, that warehouse teams recognise a need for an alternative flow strategy o match the 30% increase. This might involve block stacking fast moving products in a newly defined area within the warehouse to achieve higher output volumes.
Any potential changes can be fully modelled and tested in their ability to achieve that much needed additional 30%. And this can be presented back to leaders to justify why these tweaks should be made, while also providing visibility of where alterations might infringe on other processes. It’s the most risk-free way of meeting that rising demand spike and achieving a competitive advantage at the same time.
From one peak event to continuous improvement
Black Friday is an obvious use case for meeting spikes in demand, but the same model can be applied far beyond a single surge. Once the warehouse is accurately represented in a digital twin, teams can test future growth patterns, new pick routes, revised delivery promises, or additional automation, all without any disruption to live operations.
Along the way, businesses may find that they have inadvertently operated within rigid rules and policies that no longer match the reality of the operational needs of the business. These guardrails can be challenged by composable simulation. The impact of altering or taking a policy out altogether can be assessed in a risk-free digital environment. In the long-term, it’s possible to find new ways of operating which may have been overlooked due to the rigid structures that held businesses back.
Crucially, simulation can become an everyday decision support tool. Frontline supervisors, planners, and senior leaders can all work from the same view of how the warehouse behaves under stress, such as Black Friday. This puts everyone on the same page. Over time, each peak period becomes another opportunity to learn, refine, and feed proven strategies back into the next run-up to peak trading.
In a market where few organisations can spend like Amazon, this approach allows mid-sized and growing businesses to compete on service, efficiency, and confidence in their decisions. And without overcommitting capital or putting customer promises at risk.
Prepared for the unpredictable
As Black Friday and the extended November sales surge in demand, warehouse operations must be agile and prepared for the unpredictable. Digital twin simulation technology offers a powerful, risk-free way to model and test scenarios, ensuring warehouses can handle increased order volumes without compromising on efficiency or service levels. Leaders and their teams are empowered to identify potential bottlenecks, adjust processes, and make data-driven decisions well ahead of peak periods.
But beyond managing seasonal demand, digital twins enable continuous improvement, allowing businesses to challenge outdated processes, explore new ways of operating, and refine their strategies for the long term. For companies aiming to remain nimble through periods of change, simulation technology ensures they can meet rising demand and drive efficiency, all while safeguarding customer satisfaction and minimising risk.
