Pry Capital’s bond-market view for late January 2026 starts with a simple observation: this is no longer a “cuts = rally” market—it’s a risk-premia market. Even after multiple rate cuts that left the fed funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, investors are debating how much easing is actually left, and whether the next big move in rates comes from policy… or from term premium and confidence shocks.
The tape: yields are firm, but the message is mixed
In early January, Reuters cited the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.19% as markets looked toward key data. By late January, the market narrative had evolved: bonds were reacting to the idea of a Fed pause and a still-resilient U.S. economy, nudging some investors back into duration and selective risk. Pry Capital’s takeaway is that yield levels alone matter less than why yields are where they are—because “growth optimism” and “risk premium rebuilding” can both produce higher long-end yields, but with very different implications for portfolios.
The curve: re-steepening is back on the table
Pry Capital is treating the curve as a live referendum on the next regime. A Reuters report in mid-January highlighted that investors could capture roughly 62.4 basis points more yield in 10-year Treasuries versus 2-year notes (a sign the curve had room to steepen). Whether the curve steepens “the good way” (front-end falls on easing) or “the bad way” (long-end rises on term premium and fiscal anxiety) is the key fork Pry Capital watches.
For context, FRED tracks the 10-year minus 2-year spread as a standard gauge of curve shape and cycle expectations.
The real driver: term premium and “risk premia” rebuilding
Pry Capital’s core thesis is that 2026’s bond story may be dominated by premium rather than policy. Reuters has described Treasuries “rebuilding risk premia” into 2026, pointing to unease around future leadership and the broader macro/political backdrop. A separate Reuters analysis argued that lowering long-end yields may require addressing term premium—via tools like issuance choices, buybacks, or regulatory shifts—because rate expectations aren’t the only lever on long borrowing costs.
In plain language: even if the Fed sits still, the market can still reprice the long end if investors demand more compensation for holding duration amid uncertainty.
What the bond market appears to be pricing right now, per Pry Capital
Pry Capital interprets current bond pricing as a three-way tug-of-war: (i) pause expectations anchoring the front end, (ii) term-premium dynamics shaping the long end as investors demand compensation for uncertainty, and (iii) spread behavior reflecting how much risk appetite is being expressed through credit rather than duration. In this framing, the key is not “buy bonds” versus “sell bonds,” but whether the next repricing comes through rates, premia, or spreads—and how quickly correlations can change when headlines accelerate.
The catalysts Pry Capital would not ignore into February
- The Fed decision and messaging this week, with rates widely expected to be held after prior cuts.
- Leadership and institutional-confidence headlines, because they can widen term premium faster than any single CPI print.
- Fiscal and mortgage-rate sensitivity, since long yields feed directly into housing affordability and political incentives—an issue Reuters has tied to the administration’s agenda constraints.
Bottom line
Pry Capital’s bond-market stance is that 2026 is shaping up as a year where the curve matters as much as the level, and term premium can matter as much as the Fed. With policy now closer to “hold and assess,” bonds can still work—particularly as a hedge and through relative-value structures—but investors should treat long-duration exposure as a position that can be right on growth and still lose money on premium.
