Confidence among CEOs surged to the highest level since Q1 2025

NEW YORK, Feb. 26, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council, surged to 59 in Q1 2026, rising by 11 points from 48 in Q4 2025. (A reading above 50 reflects more positive than negative responses). A total of 142 CEOs participated in the Q1 survey, which was fielded from February 3 through February 16.

“CEO Confidence improved significantly in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting restored optimism among leaders of large firms,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “CEOs’ views of general economic conditions now compared to six months ago turned moderately positive, while CEO’s six-month expectations for the economy flipped from slight pessimism at the end of 2025 to moderate optimism in February 2026. CEOs’ expectations for their own industry improved further, progressing from mild cautiousness to solid confidence. Finally, CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries—a measure not included in calculating the topline CEO Confidence measure—also rose significantly to positive territory.”

“Along with the rebound in confidence, businesses’ investment continued to firm up in Q1, with more than a third of CEOs expecting to revise capital spending plans upwards in the next 12 months,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Chair Emeritus of The Conference Board. “However, CEOs appeared to remain in a ‘low-hire, low-fire’ mode: the share of CEOs planning to increase the size of their workforce over the next 12 months edged down, while those expecting job cuts also declined. Plans for wage increases were overall little changed. CEOs reported that hiring qualified people was generally easier in Q1, but there was an uptick in those having real problems in several areas.”

Ferguson continued: “Among top business risks impacting their industries, CEOs’ perceptions of AI and new technology risks climbed to the top ranking, just edging out geopolitical risks. Risks associated with trade and tariffs and supply chains dissipated, while financial and economic risks rose, displacing legal and regulatory risks in the ranking. Most CEOs (71%) reported seeing higher costs as a result of tariff increases. On balance, 44% of CEOs either have passed or intend to pass costs onto customers, while 27% absorbed costs.”

Current Conditions
CEOs’ assessment of general economic conditions improved significantly in Q1 2026:

39% of CEOs said economic conditions were better than six months ago, up from 20% in Q4 2025.
Only 8% said economic conditions were worse, down from 37% last quarter.

CEOs’ assessments of conditions in their own industries improved in Q1:

42% of CEOs said conditions in their own industries were better than six months ago, up from 29% in Q4 2025.
14% said conditions in their own industries were worse, down from 38% last quarter.

Future Conditions
CEOs’ expectations about the short-term economic outlook turned positive in Q1 2026.

43% of CEOs expected economic conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 24% in Q4 2025.
13% expected economic conditions to worsen, down from 38% last quarter.

CEOs’ expectations for short-term prospects in their own industries also surged in Q1:

51% of CEOs expected conditions in their own industry to improve over the next six months, up from 33% in Q4 2025.
14% expected conditions in their own industry to worsen over the next six months, down from 28%.

Employment, Recruiting, Wages, and Capital Spending

Employment: 31% of CEOs expected to increase their workforce, down 1 point from 32% in Q4 2025. This was higher than the share expecting to reduce their workforce (27%, down from 29%). 41% of CEOs anticipated no change in their workforce.
Hiring Qualified People: Hiring qualified people was generally easier in Q1, but there was an uptick in CEOs having real problems in several areas (11% in Q1 versus 4% last quarter).
Wages: CEOs continued to downshift wage growth from 3-5 percent to 1-3 percent, but planned wage increases over 5 percent rose again.
Capital Spending: The share of CEOs expecting to increase capital spending rose strongly—to 35% in Q1 2026 from 22% in Q4 2025. Meanwhile, only 11% of CEOs expected to revise spending plans downward. Most CEOs (54%) indicated no plans to revise capital spending.

Industry Risks:
CEOs continued to rank AI & new technology, geopolitical, and cyber risks as top concerns for their industry

Tariff Impacts:
Most CEOs saw higher costs as a result of tariff increases (71%). On balance, 44% of CEOs either have passed or intend to pass costs onto customers, while 27% absorbed costs.

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org

About The Business Council
The Business Council is a forum for the CEOs of the world’s largest multinational corporations across all industry sectors. Members gather several times each year to share best practices, network and engage in intellectually provocative, enlightening discussions with peers and thought-leaders in business, government, academia, science, technology and other disciplines. Through the medium of discussion, the Council seeks to foster greater understanding of the major opportunities and challenges facing business, and to create consensus for solutions. The Business Council is a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (6) tax-exempt status. The Business Council does not lobby. Visit The Business Council’s website at www.thebusinesscouncil.org

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