New actuarial modeling capability enables Accountable Care Organizations to evaluate provider network composition under CMS’s next-generation accountable care model ahead of the August TIN-add deadline.

SAN FRANCISCO, June 18, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Arbital Health, the leader in Actuarial AI-enabled infrastructure for healthcare, today announced ATLAS (ACO TIN Level Analysis & Simulation), a first-of-its-kind actuarial modeling capability designed to help ACOs evaluate participation and financial performance under the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) new LEAD Model. ATLAS provides ACOs with a fast, clear view of how their provider composition affects financial performance, powered by national Virtual Research Data Center data and Arbital’s proprietary actuarial logic.

“ACOs are staring down a high-stakes, 10-year program decision with hundreds of provider groups to evaluate by August,” shared Brian M. Overstreet, President and CEO of Arbital Health. “ACOs are required to evaluate dozens to hundreds of physician practices, each with different cost profiles, risk scores, and attribution volumes under a CMS methodology most teams have never modeled. That’s why our expert value-based care actuarial team built ATLAS. ACOs can prospectively model and evaluate LEAD contract performance for clear, data-driven answers.”

Replacing the expiring ACO REACH program, the LEAD (Long-Term Enhanced Accountable Care Organization Design) Model is designed to provide long-term stability for organizations taking accountability for total cost of care. However, the model introduces new complexity, including multiple risk adjustment methodologies, quality withholds, AI-driven risk adjustment components, and long-term benchmark considerations that can significantly impact financial performance.

Arbital’s actuarial team built ATLAS to help organizations model these variables and develop an evidence-based participation strategy. Users can instantly see provider impact on benchmark, attribution, and projected net shared savings; stress test expense trend, risk adjustment trend, and quality earn back; and calculate CMS’s exact LEAD benchmarking methodology, broken out by cohort. Combined with Arbital’s advanced Actuarial AI platform, they support the full financial lifecycle of LEAD, MSSP, and any ACO risk program.

“ATLAS replaces manual spreadsheet-driven processes, data gaps, and key assumptions with a repeatable, self-serve tool based on real underlying data and Arbital’s actuarial modeling,” shared Andrew Mackenzie, Chief Science Officer at Arbital Health. “ACOs can quickly identify which provider groups strengthen performance, understand projected financial outcomes under different risk structures, and develop a clear strategy for long-term success under LEAD. It transforms a highly complex planning exercise into an actionable, data-driven financial strategy.”

Arbital ATLAS is not a multi-month implementation. Users can be up and running before the August deadline. You log in and start modeling. And for ACOs looking beyond TIN selection, ATLAS is part of Arbital Health’s broader Actuarial AI platform, which enables payors and providers to stop reporting on the past and start leading in real-time—maximizing both financial and patient outcomes. Learn more about ATLAS here.

About Arbital Health:
Arbital Health provides the Actuarial AI-enabled infrastructure for providers and payors to successfully manage risk-based contracts. Combining the industry’s leading value-based care actuaries with a robust AI-powered platform, Arbital Health centralizes fragmented data, accelerates contract performance monitoring, and helps speed decision making. The company’s embedded actuarial AI assistant is powered by actuarial logic to continuously measure contract performance, forecast financial impact, and deliver actionable insights to drive down spend and MLR, improving patient outcomes while there is still time to act. Arbital Health is led by a best-in-class team of healthcare actuaries, engineers, and industry veterans, and backed by leading investors: Valtruis, Transformation Capital, Shaper Capital, and Healthy Ventures. For more information, visit ArbitalHealth.com.

Press Contact:
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SVM PR
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