Over the past few years, the aviation industry has come under intense scrutiny for its CO2 emissions and the negative impact this has on global warming. As a result, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently approved a resolution for the global air transport industry to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
This is a huge challenge for the industry, and immediate action must be taken to achieve this goal. However, although airlines are beginning to embrace the benefits of carbon offsetting by using sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and third-party technologies, the question is, in an organisation with multiple components, how do airlines realise the most efficient and effective way of reducing carbon emissions?
One solution is using model-driven AI to develop methods that accurately monitor, simulate and implement optimal carbon strategies within the wider business forecast. This enables an airline to create a realistic digital representation of an entire organisation and generate operational simulations, which will form the basis of intelligent planning and analytics.
AI modelling for sustainability
Carbon emissions AI modelling uses an intelligent model to simulate the operation of a fleet of aircraft and its associated carbon emissions. By formulising the component parts of the system and their interactions, the model allows for structured thinking about the environmental implications of the aircraft operator’s decisions.
A model-based approach utilises this simulation strategy and can be used to enhance decision making in two ways. Firstly, an analysis is carried out using a single framework to measure and examine a system or component’s carbon output. Secondly, this model-based approach can produce a variety of ‘what if’ scenarios to explore potential future strategies relating to reducing carbon emissions. This enhanced decision making can be applied to model the carbon output of entire fleets or sub-fleets of aircraft, maintenance facilities and individual engine, component and aircraft part utilisation.
Roadmap to Destination 2050
The advanced model-based AI approach allows the airline industry to improve their sustainability and abide by the carbon mandates as set out by governments all over the world. Particularly for commercial airlines and Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), modelling their carbon outputs is a fundamental initiative in aiding their bid to go carbon neutral, as set out in the ‘Destination 2050’ roadmap which details a route to net zero for European aviation.
The AI software is utilised in three main areas:
- It can be used to improve fleet maintenance scheduling to produce a more efficient sustainment operation, which will in turn lead to fewer maintenance shop visits and aircraft will be in an overall better condition, equating to less carbon being emitted.
- The approach can also be used to assess the carbon impact of fleet modernisation, such as by optimising Entry into Service (EIS) aircraft for newer and more efficient aircraft.
- It can model the carbon output for aircraft and their assets and optimise their usage to lower overall emissions.
Benefits of AI approach
This advanced technology gives airlines a flexible enhanced decision-making tool to optimise their sustainment operation and map out the ramifications of their fleet operation. In turn, this tool allows airlines to comply with incoming regulations, such as The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), and save money by assessing the downstream consequences of decisions in relation to carbon offsetting.
Additionally, through the optimisation of maintenance scheduling, the aircraft condition is ultimately improved which reduces the number of shop visits performs, leading to less carbon emissions and making the aircraft itself stronger.
Better understanding is key
Making sure an airline is lessening its carbon emissions is a key element of its future strategies, across the whole of the supply chain. Forecasting alone doesn’t physically change your footprint, but can be used as a decision-making tool, helping to map out the possible solutions to a problem. The tool can aid users to further their understanding about their decisions and options for environmental fleet planning. Better understanding will ultimately lead to improvement.
Without educated guidance, reducing carbon emissions in an organisation is a complex and costly process. By utilising a model-based approach, decision-makers can instead assess the optimal strategy when reducing their carbon output and calculate what works best for them environmentally and financially.
Costs associated with running maintenance facilities, maintenance checks across the fleet and fines associated with non-compliance with incoming regulations can all be reduced through modelling carbon emissions.
Environmental impact
Sustainability modelling provides endless possibilities for reducing environmental impact. It can be applied to modelling SAF, green aircraft and carbon-neutral technologies to name a few. By making the most of aircraft sustainability modelling, it allows airlines to place a strategic bet on sustainability, optimising their overall organisational strategy.
The environmental impact of the aviation industry has become a global talking point. It is crucial that carriers act quickly to improve their sustainability initiatives to provide a greener future for flying. Consumers who are environmentally conscious are the future and will front the drive to net-zero. For airlines, using holistic sustainability forecasting is mission critical.
In time, with the correct implementation of sustainability initiatives and advancement of technology, it is possible to achieve carbon neutrality. Airlines are currently taking steps towards this goal, and some carriers such as easyJet and JetBlue already claim that their entire operation is carbon neutral.
However, additional measures need to be taken for all airlines to contribute towards sustainability targets. Carbon offsetting is a fundamental interim measure, although there is currently a lack of available scalable carbon-neutral technologies. In time, and through financial contribution, these technologies will be developed and aid the aviation industry’s carbon footprint.
The utilisation of a model-based approach can help airlines to assess the optimal strategy to move towards achieving carbon neutrality.
