Despite record investment and tariffs, US manufacturing imports rise, while domestic manufacturing output barely shifts

Kearney’s Reshoring Index remains in negative territory but improved slightly, from −115 to −91.
Tariff policies aren’t yielding hoped-for results.
US imports of manufactured goods increased by 4.6 percent.
Certain product categories that currently make up 40 percent of Asian imports show small signs of reshoring.

CHICAGO, April 29, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Global strategy and management consulting firm Kearney today released the 13th edition of its gauge of nearshoring and reshoring activities, The Kearney 2026 Reshoring Index: Why US manufacturing imports hit a four-year high despite record investment and tariffs. With a net reshoring metric still in negative territory, the report finds that despite sweeping changes in US trade and tariff policies and significant changes in geopolitical realities, as of the end of 2025 America remains ever more reliant on imports while its manufacturing capacity remains years away from projected goals.

The Kearney Reshoring Index measures the year-over-year change in the US manufacturing import ratio (MIR) expressed in basis points. MIR is the total manufactured goods imported from 14 Asian low-cost countries and regions (LCCRs), expressed as a percentage of domestic manufacturing output. The US Kearney Reshoring Index reflects the year-over-year change in MIR, with a positive number indicating net reshoring and a negative number indicating net offshoring. This year’s quantitative analysis is augmented by Kearney’s Reshoring Index Executive Survey conducted in March 2026, as well as insights gained over the past year from client engagements.

Findings from the research include:

Direct imports from Mainland China took another sizeable hit last year. Mostly driven by tariffs, China lost $135 billion, which sees its share of total US manufacturing imports fall below 10 percent, down from 20 percent only four years ago. Meanwhile, the other 13 Asian LCCRs that have historically benefited from US manufacturing offshoring picked up even more in absolute dollar value, gaining $193 billion.
Especially for Computer & Electronics Products, China’s volumes moved to Mexico and other Asian LCCRs. C&E imports rose 29 percent while its domestic output grew only 2.8 percent. Even after including tariffs, the current costs at the typical source countries of origin for laptops and smartphones stayed below the cost that these products could potentially be made for in the US.
American manufacturing capacity is still lagging. Despite US manufacturing investments tripling over the past four years, there’s only been 1.5 percent growth in capacity so far, as uncertainty and policy changes cause delays and even abandonments of capital projects. Persistent labor, ecosystem, and policy concerns are also reducing executives’ reshoring and nearshoring investment ROI expectations.

“As in the past few years, it’s important to pay attention to the nuances in our latest report,” said Kearney partner and lead author Patrick Van den Bossche. “The rise in imports is really being driven by two categories, Computer & Electronics and Apparel & Accessories, which make up 44 percent of all Asian LCCR imports. Both of these are tracking counter to small but promising signs of a broader trend we’re starting to see in most of the other categories. The dollar value of these two biggest import categories, which we show in the report are also the hardest to reshore, skews our Reshoring Index picture from an aggregate perspective.”

“While the overall picture may look bleak, individual product category performances offer more promise,” continued Van den Bossche. “Most product categories are starting to rely less on imports. Their domestic production as a share of their total US consumption went up slightly compared to the portion tied to imports from the Asian LCCRs, but not yet enough to conclusively state that we have turned the corner. And many current and future events can still derail a true US manufacturing resurgence.”

“Mexico continued to play a big role in regional supply chain solutions for the US market through 2025,” added Horacia Leal, a principal in Kearney’s Mexico City office. “US imports from Mexico rose by 8 percent between 2024 and 2025, primarily driven by a $47 billion increase in C&E. But we’re seeing signs that weakening investment confidence, the uncertainty about USMCA, and the impact of tariffs will likely cause future nearshoring growth to be uneven, rather than a clean compounding trend.”

Read the full report here.

About the Kearney Reshoring Index
Launched in 2014 and now in its 13th edition, the Kearney Reshoring Index tracks the manufacturing import ratio (MIR), comparing imports from Asian low-cost countries and regions (LCCRs) against US domestic manufacturing gross output to determine shifts in manufacturing sourcing. It is an annual barometer used to track whether or not manufacturing is returning to the United States from 14 Asian LCCRs. The final Index is the year-over-year change in the MIR, measured in basis points, with a positive index signaling net reshoring and a negative index indicating continued net offshoring. The index uses objective, macro-level US manufacturing and import data rather than surveys. For more on the reshoring index, please visit: https://www.kearney.com/service/operations-performance/us-reshoring-index.

About Kearney

For 100 years, Kearney has been a leading management consulting firm and trusted partner to three-quarters of the Fortune Global 500 and governments around the world. With a presence across more than 40 countries, our people make us who we are. We work impact first, tackling your toughest challenges with original thinking and a commitment to making change happen together. By your side, we deliver—value, results, impact. To learn more about Kearney, please visit www.kearney.com.

Media contact:

Meir Kahtan Public Relations
Meir Kahtan
+1 917-864-0800
[email protected]

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kearneys-2026-reshoring-index-remains-in-negative-territory-302756474.html