Predicting a new year is both exciting and practical. Beyond the fun of speculation, it’s vital to form scenarios and a foundation for planning. The goal isn’t to guess the future but to evaluate the current landscape and identify paths forward.
This decade has been anything but predictable. We’ve faced the challenges of COVID-19, geopolitical tensions, and the transformative impact of generative AI, which marked a significant turning point in AI development. As we approach 2025, uncertainties remain. Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s famous phrase still resonates: we face “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns.”
Five Predictions
Focusing on high-tech development and the business environment, here are five key predictions for 2025:
- Generative AI will continue to evolve, improving efficiency and capabilities, but no groundbreaking disruptions are expected.
- Many new AI-based businesses will emerge, leveraging proprietary data and advanced numerical analytics rather than disruptive language models.
- Geopolitical instability will persist, potentially driving significant changes in the business landscape.
- The tech investment market will see positive momentum, but uncertainty will grow, and the Venture Capital sector will remain unpredictable.
- Defence and security technology will experience rapid growth.
Let’s delve deeper into these trends.
Generative AI Evolution
While generative AI will continue to improve, no revolutionary breakthroughs are anticipated in 2025. Development will focus on training models with larger datasets and greater computational power, leading to enhanced quality and broader use cases. Generative AI is poised to become a mainstream tool, seamlessly integrated into daily life and work.
However, we should not underestimate the risk of AI becoming a source of disruption for industries unprepared to adapt. For instance, sectors reliant on traditional human creativity, like content creation or design, might face existential threats as generative AI becomes more sophisticated. The real question isn’t whether AI will disrupt but who will be caught off guard.
A significant battleground will be over who dominates this space. Microsoft has historically excelled at desktop integration, while Google maintains a strong presence on computers and smartphones. The big question is whether OpenAI can find a business model and achieve widespread adoption. Additionally, Apple’s progress in AI will be closely watched, can it really get to full AI speed. Yet, one wildcard remains: will an unforeseen player emerge to disrupt this oligopoly?
Proprietary Data Businesses
AI’s integration into daily activities requires tailored solutions and proprietary data. In business and enterprise contexts, this involves AI agents embedded in systems and processes, delivering use-case-specific services like legal, risk management, geopolitics, and healthcare. These solutions rely on proprietary data; a key competitive advantage.
The emergence of personal AI represents another frontier. Personal AI assistants will leverage individual data to offer tailored support while ensuring privacy. These could include AI twins that replicate a user’s knowledge and preferences, complete with avatars mimicking their voice and appearance. Data ownership and licensing will become pivotal, fostering new business models around controlled data usage.
But the rise of proprietary data businesses also raises ethical and legal challenges. Who owns the data? How is it used? The potential for misuse or monopolistic practices looms large, and regulatory battles may define this industry’s future. Companies betting on proprietary data must brace for public scrutiny and potential legal roadblocks.
Geopolitical Uncertainty
Geopolitics will exert an increasing influence on business. Technologies like microchips and AI are at the center of an arms race, but the impact extends across industries. Companies must navigate risks related to global supply chains, operational regions, and financial systems.
2025 will reveal the geopolitical effects of Trump’s presidency and Asia’s evolving role in global business. A divided Asia or major conflicts could disrupt supply chains, especially for microchips, with far-reaching consequences. Similarly, disruptions to critical cloud services could pose significant challenges. Businesses can no longer afford to ignore geopolitics and must proactively manage associated risks.
However, the unpredictability of global leaders and alliances could trigger unexpected scenarios. For instance, what if a major tech-exporting nation suddenly imposed sweeping sanctions? Or if a groundbreaking trade deal reshuffled supply chains? Betting on stability is no longer a viable strategy; businesses must plan for extreme outcomes.
Divided Investment Market
Predicting the investment market is challenging, but some fundamentals are clear. Tech companies will remain influential, but geopolitical factors like tariffs and protectionism will create regional disparities. Private equity and private companies will continue to grow in importance.
The startup and VC market has been turbulent. While overall funding volume has been robust, securing investments remains difficult for many. This dynamic is unlikely to change dramatically in 2025 without significant shifts in the VC landscape. Market corrections, inevitable over time, could emerge later in Trump’s term, though timing remains uncertain.
Moreover, the rise of speculative investments in AI startups could create a bubble. If valuations soar without corresponding revenue growth, a sharp correction might follow. Investors must tread carefully, balancing optimism with realism. For founders, 2025 could be a year of reckoning: only those with clear value propositions will survive.
Defence and Security Solutions
Given the trends outlined above, the growth of defence, dual-use, and security industries in 2025 is unsurprising. This includes national defense technologies, cybersecurity, resilience solutions, and personal protection tools.
Countries are increasing security investments, driven partly by NATO’s defense spending requirements. European and Asian nations, in particular, are expected to ramp up their budgets. The market’s structure is also evolving. Traditionally dominated by major players, there’s growing pressure to foster innovation and adopt cost-effective, dual-use solutions.
Yet, this sector also faces significant risks. The rapid militarization of emerging technologies, such as AI and quantum computing, could spark an arms race with unforeseen consequences. Additionally, smaller nations and private actors gaining access to advanced security tools might destabilize traditional power dynamics. The defense market in 2025 won’t just grow; it could become a crucible for global conflict.
Final Thoughts
2025 promises continued transformation and complexity. By understanding these trends and preparing for uncertainty, businesses and individuals can position themselves to manage challenges and seize opportunities.
But one thing is certain: complacency will be punished. Those who fail to anticipate the next wave of change risk being swept away. The future favors the bold and the prepared.
Jouko Ahvenainen