All serious business and government conversations today revolve around AI, whether to improve economies, national security, or the opportunity to become a global technology leader. Typically, the speculations are around whether the United States or China is leading, and will ultimately win, the global competition for AI development. There is corresponding hypothesis about the effects of the US Administration’s tariff policies, particularly as they relate to China and other large nations.
The globalization genie cannot be put back into the bottle, and AI presents opportunities and challenges for every country. When considering the global sate of technological development and the impact of tech and policy, it’s important to go beyond the binary, China vs US for example. Rather than frame research in this way, we should examine all regions and national in the context of a single, global Digital Economy.
The International Data Center Authority (IDCA) has created an AI Readiness Index, which integrates hundreds of factors across the four broad categories of economy, environment, social conditions, and governance to develop a single view of the world, its actors, and the potential of each of its nations.
This index finds that among the top tier of economic powers, the United States is indeed leading China at the moment. The key reasons for this are:
- A more robust AI development environment
- The digital infrastructure that is far more extensive
- An environmental impact that, while not among the top leaders of the world, is nonetheless many times more efficient than China in producing GDP relative to greenhouse gas emissions levels
- Stronger social and governance institutions
Life Beyond the United States and China
Among other large nations, the data for Brazil pops out as an illustration of the environmental, economic, and social progress this nation of more than 200 million people is making, despite a reputation as a developing nation with large, ingrained problems. The other most highly populated nations – India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Nigeria – each have their own bright spots but also face continuing challenges that still impede their overall progress.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia must also be mentioned within this group. A G20 nation with an annual GDP of more than $1 trillion. The IDCA AI Readiness Index accounts strongly for sustainable energy as well, and Saudi Arabia will need to commit to building out its sustainable power grid to achieve world leadership in AI. It is clear the country has the economic resources and apparent government resolve to do this and build new AI centers on any scale.
Among smaller nations, all four Scandinavian countries in addition to Finland and Switzerland score very highly in this index. Many nations within Central and Eastern Europe also show promise. Within the developing world, a few nations such as Rwanda, Uruguay, and Costa Rica are showing AI readiness on a small scale.
In the Middle East, advancing in parallel to KSA, the United Arab Emirates continues to make strong progress with its digital infrastructure with aggressive investment and infrastructure commitments on a global scale. And in Southeast Asia, Malaysia, technically a developing nation but in reality, a nation that’s approaching highly developed status, is also a bright spot.
However, there is a critical lack of focused education and job skills worldwide in the area of AI in all its forms. This shortage is readily apparent in China and even India, as well as throughout the entire developing world.
A Need for 100 million Jobs
IDCA research estimates a need for more than 100 million new jobs will be required globally if the world’s people are going to rise to the challenge of developing and making good use of AI. Even in highly developed nations, including the United States, there is a critical need for reskilling the existing tech workforce and training a new generation in the skills that are necessary to leverage AI.
AI is fundamental to developing the Digital Economy, which today comprises about 16 percent of the world’s overall GDP. Digital Economies produce economic value more efficiently than what’s been the industrial norm for more than a century. Digital Economies not only encompass a high percentage of services, but also embrace smart Industry 4.0 manufacturing, sensor-centric and IoT-based transportation and logistics, better management of electricity grids, and a commitment to sustainable power, building materials, and practices.
AI Drives Progress
IDCA’s data already shows that nations with the most extensive digital infrastructure have the most efficient economies. The vast new data centers that are required to develop and use AI are thus facilitators and accelerators toward emissions-reduction goals, Net Zero, and beyond. A short-sighted view that big data centers are merely high emissions producers does not see how in fact they are improving emissions overall. In that context, new data centers throughout the world are shown to use sustainable power (including nuclear) for 94 percent of their energy needs – this practice will no doubt continue.
Tariff policies and other geopolitical maneuvering always have the potential to utterly disrupt progress and societal development. However, the commitment to AI by a vast majority of businesses and governments shows that politics does not have to be the ultimate arbiter. We are currently in the era of generative AI, or GenAI, which is expected to continue to improve.
Meanwhile, a new generation of Agentic AI is already emerging, in environments where the AI programs act as agents to automate inefficient processes, deliver insights out of raw data, and continue to improve industrial processes. AGI, quantum computing, and what they will deliver are on the horizon. The nations that have the most highly trained skillsets, commitments to sustainable growth, and strong governance will be those that emerge as leaders, both large and small.
Many people may take comfort in believing that the United States is the clear “leader” and always will be. But in a world of 8 billion people, about 4 percent of whom live in the US, we can expect leadership from all regions and coming from countries of differing sizes. The countries cited above all have the potential to be global AI leaders. A more extensive analysis of AI readiness would also show that many other nations also have the ability to transform themselves and, as Steve Jobs famously said, make a dent in the universe.
